Finally, Some Rain for the South…

A cold front will stall across central Alabama late this evening and overnight setting up the perfect and much needed rain scenario for us. A low will form along the front moving east into central Georgia thus enhancing the rain. This is the event we have been waiting for for months – a drenching and soaking rain on this parched earth in the South. I kept expecting the local weather outlets to start talking drought and they began just before this scenario showed up in the models.

Temperatures will steadily fall after tonight and stay in the mid to upper seventies for the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t hit 80 degrees for Monday and with forecast lows being much cooler than they are currently forecast for.

Current Conditions Out of Auburn…

view Yesterday's Weather Auburn-Opelika Airport Lat: 32.62   Lon: -85.44   Elev: 774 Last Update on Sep 25, 4:55 am CDT Fair 72 °F (22 °C) Humidity: 83 % Wind Speed: N 6 MPH Barometer: 30.06" Dewpoint: 66 °F (19 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Big Changes in Store for the South…

We may just get our first taste of fall as the weekend passes. This is the most rain I’ve seen in the forecast for months! It’s exciting! The pattern changes as the persistent ridge we have been experiencing shifts east and the jet stream is allowed to drop south bringing us much wetter and unsettled weather. The highs next week are forecast to only be in the mid eighties. That will feel almost fall-like with the mid nineties we have been experiencing for months. A welcome change indeed!

Current Conditions…

Another balmy night tonight, but that is about the last of the summer nights we will have for awhile. The high humidity makes it feel much more warmer than it actually is!

view Yesterday's Weather Auburn-Opelika Airport Lat: 32.62   Lon: -85.44   Elev: 774 Last Update on Sep 24, 4:15 am CDT Fair 72 °F (22 °C) Humidity: 73 % Wind Speed: SE 6 MPH Barometer: 30.17" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

A Graphical Look at the Weekend…

Stagnant Weather…

A very stagnant weather pattern continues to play out for the South this week. September is winding down and there must be some relief in sight. When it will come, the models aren’t sure. The GFS is still hinting at major changes around the 1st of October. I was trying to think when we usually get our first frost and it is around the 17th of November so we have a long ways to go for cooler weather it seems.

We had some convection in the area pop up late yesterday afternoon which was more than the weather guessers had predicted. We didn’t get any rain here, but South of Birmingham saw a lot of action with some storms being quite strong. The dry front that is causing this still continues to meander around central Alabama today so it will be interesting for the late afternoon to see if anything else develops.

Current Conditions as of 3:15am…

Much warmer night tonight – feeling almost balmy and summer-like. You can also tell the humidity has increased the past few days. 

view Yesterday's Weather Auburn-Opelika Airport Lat: 32.62   Lon: -85.44   Elev: 774 Last Update on Sep 20, 3:15 am CDT Fair 73 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 69 % Wind Speed: E 3 MPH Barometer: 30.02" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Relief and Cooler Temperatures May Be in Sight!

Look at those temperatures across the middle northwest! They are certainly getting a taste of winter with the passage of a very strong cold front! I envy them and wish it would push through the South. I am certainly ready for fall. How about you?

The weather story for Central Alabama remains the ridge! It appears that the ridge will hold strong through the weekend and the next week keeping things dry and warm. Morning lows will be in the 60s so that will feel nice but the afternoon highs will remain in the lower and mid 90s. However, while this static weather pattern is not what we might like to see, the “energizer” ridge is protecting us from tropical systems.

The GFS model is hinting at big changes towards the end of September. It is also showing a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico around the 3rd of October. These are all big ifs, but exciting nonetheless. 

Today’s Outlook…

Clouds will be on the increase across the south, while the north
remains mostly sunny. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s.
It does appear that there is enough moisture to trigger a few
isolated thunderstorms along and south of the front, with most of
the activity developing after 3 PM. If you are going to be outdoors
stay weather aware, as lightning will be the main threat.

First Big Snow of the Season…

Montana and the northwest is seeing their first snow of the season. What does this bode for  us? I guess it means somebody is getting a taste of winter early. I got so excited for those in Montana when I saw blue and pink on the national radar. We need a strong cold front like this to change our stagnant weather pattern of mild nights and hot days. 

Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport Last Update on 17 Sep 10:42 MDT Lt Snow, Fog 34°F (1°C) Humidity: 93 % Wind Speed: calm Barometer: 30.28 in (N/A mb) Dewpoint: 32°F (0°C) Wind Chill: 34°F (1°C) Visibility: 2.50 Miles More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Our Forecast…

There is a “dry” front meandering through central Alabama today. I say dry in that it will only reduce the humidity levels slightly with no relief in sight as far as the warm daily temperatures are concerned.

view Yesterday's Weather La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 17, 12:35 pm EDT Fair 90 °F (32 °C) Humidity: 38 % Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH Barometer: 30.05" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Heat Index: 90 °F (32 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

A Look at the Afternoon Forecast…

A Quick Look at the Weekend in Store…

Gradual Warm Up…

A gradual warm up is in store as fall continues to refuse to grace us with its presence. Less cool nights and warmer days will be the norm with no rain in sight. My lawn is officially dead and so is my lawncare business – with no lawns to mow with the grass no longer growing unless it is watered heavily. They will soon be talking about our drought in all the weather related outlets no doubt as tropical weather mania fades as the season for such ends.

We had some convection erupt over central Alabama yesterday that caught all the weather guessers by surprise. Even a few strong storms bubbled up near Birmingham. This perplexed me as well as the humidity and dewpoint levels were so low – not much moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Must have been some instability in the upper level atmosphere to cause it. These kind of things can only be caught with weather balloons and atmospheric sounding, and not computer weather models.

The long range forecast looks pretty grim for us weather fans it seems, or our lawns for that matter. No rain or interesting weather in sight. Our only hope is a tropical system forming in the central gulf and moving into the Southern states.  The jet stream is centered across the northern tier of states with a very predominant high centered over the Southern gulf states.  This is keeping cold fronts from entering the South. This is also steering all Cape Verde tropical storms away from the mainland.

Current Weather…

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 16, 2:55 am EDT Fair 61 °F (16 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.09" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Weather Around the Country From The Weather Channel…

Northeast | View Regional Video

A storm system rolls through the region today and tonight spreading a wide swath of rain, showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half of the day the rain should fall in central and western sections of New York and Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia. This afternoon the precipitation marches eastward reaching all areas except southern and eastern Virginia.

Some of the thunderstorms could become severe in western Pennsylvania and West Virginia producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.

High temperatures should be held in the 60s to middle 70s in New England, New York, all but southeastern Pennsylvania, western Maryland and northern West Virginia. Elsewhere temperatures should climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s. A few areas in eastern Virginia could top the 90-degree mark.

The storm continues its eastward journey tonight spreading locally heavy rain and thunderstorms through New England, eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Light showers and a few thundershowers are possible in central and western New York, central and western Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia.

Midwest | View Regional Video

A storm system departs eastern parts of the region by this evening. Rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky from the storm.

Some of the thunderstorms could turn severe this afternoon in central and eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky producing damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly an isolated tornado.

Another system brings showers and some thunderstorms to North Dakota this afternoon and evening. None of those storms is expected to become severe.

The remainder of the region should have a mix of clouds and sun and remain dry.

High temperatures should hold in the upper 50s to upper 60s in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and northern Illinois. High temperatures should reach the 70s to very low 80s over the remainder of the region.

West | View Regional Video

Showers are expected along the Northwest coast, in eastern Washington, northern Idaho and the northern half of Montana today. Several systems rotating around a big storm in the Gulf of Alaska are responsible for the murky weather today.

A wave of steadier and heavier showers is expected in northwestern California, western Oregon and western Washington later this afternoon through the evening hours. A third wave of rain is forecast to reach those same areas Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are anticipated in southern New Mexico today and in southwestern New Mexico and eastern Arizona tomorrow. A few of the thunderstorms in northeast New Mexico could produce strong winds and some hail this afternoon and early evening.

The remainder of the region should be dry both days.

High temperatures range from the 60s and 70s in Montana, western parts of Washington and Oregon and along the California coast to a 100 to 110 degree range in the deserts today.

Much cooler air moves into northern Montana tonight and Friday keeping high temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon.

The Tropics…

I am about tropic’ed out – growing bored with tropical weather. All these storms which all the weather websites are obsessing over are no threat whatsoever to the U.S. mainland. I want weather that is applicable to me and my life – not swirling storms in the central Atlantic only dangerous to shipping lanes and lone islands.  Just to be true to weather blog form and going with the crowd, here are the storms and their predicted tracks…

Hurricane Igor

Hurricane Julia

Tropical Storm Karl

No Rain In Sight…

It seems there is no relief in sight as far as rain goes. This time of the year it usually takes a tropical system to bring us rain. October climatologically is our driest month of the year so this doesn’t bode promising. November and December are considered our severe weather months of the fall and winter – both being wet months climatologically. 

The nights continue to be very cool with the recent passage of our cold front. It was definitely jacket weather when I got off of work this morning. I even turned on the heat in my car for the first time this fall season. With clear skies and bright sunshine, the temperatures soar during the day to the upper eighties and lower nineties. As I’ve said before, September is just another summer month this far into the Deep South.

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 14, 7:15 am EDT Fair 55 °F (13 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.12" Dewpoint: 55 °F (13 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Tropics…

We now have two hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Igor and Julia. Igor weakened a bit, but still is packing estimated winds of 135 mph. It will recurve well east of the U.S., but could be very close to Bermuda this weekend. Julia won’t get close to the U.S., and is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as shearing from Igor’s outflow begins to impact the system late this week.

The wave over the Caribbean still has a great chance to become Tropical Storm Karl soon… this one will move across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the second landfall on the Mexican coast well south of Brownsville, Texas. No impact on the Central Gulf Coast.

Do You Still Watch The Weather Channel?

I quit watching weeks ago and haven’t missed it. I find the Internet to be my prime source for non-sensationalized weather these days. The Weather Channel should be more aptly named Weather Headline News Network. I often fondly call it the DEATH and DESTRUCTION channel as they love it when really bad weather tears stuff up and people get killed. It means more money and ratings for them.

I can fondly remember my days in college watching Kristina Abernathy (what happened to her?) discuss the next day’s weather and forecast. I would watch for hours as I read a book or magazines. You could actually get local weather information back in those days. Now, much of their programming is variety centered news and shows such as Storm Stories and When Weather Changed History which I loath as they show the same shows over and over and over ad naseum. It is reality TV at is finest and most base form – cost saving media for the network. It must be expensive to pay meteorologists to actually report the weather for a change.

Early mornings were the best after NBC bought the network. Alex Wallace was the meteorologist on duty and it was like the old days. Just local forecasts by region and weather catering to your more avid weather media lover. Now, they cater to the mass audience – your average news network watcher. I miss the old days. They certainly no longer have my support or viewership. 

Pleasant Nights In Store…

Pleasant nights ahead and somewhat cooler days are in store for us this week. The NWS has a 20 percent chance of rain returning on Friday and Friday night. It doesn’t look promising, though. The NWS will tweak this forecast as Friday approaches.

As the weeks progress, the temperatures will slowly start to drop as Fall arrives.  Each week getting cooler nights and cooler days. It will take a strong cold front to make a bigger change in this pattern. Monday of next week the forecast high is only to be 87. That will feel downright cool compared to the hot weather we have had this summer.

Current Conditions…

It is jacket and pullover weather this morning. I just walked outside of work to see how it felt and it feels chilly for me at least. I am so cold natured. I am glad I am no longer gathering carts as the cooler weather starts to settle in. There are perks to my new position – a climate controlled environment.

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 13, 3:35 am EDT Fair 66 °F (19 °C) Humidity: 64 % Wind Speed: N 3 MPH Barometer: 30.03" Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor is Rivaling Earl in Strength…

IGOR IS ONE POWERFUL HURRICANE: Igor is very close to tying Earl for the honor of being the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2010 season. In fact, there are several similarities between the two storms. One in the intensity. Igor boasts top winds of 140 mph and could get even stronger today. . Earl peaked at 145 mph.

Another is the forecast track. Igor is about 1030 miles east of the island of St. Martin tonight, still heading to the west. Igor should begin turning to the west northwest on Monday and will pass about 500 miles northeast of San Juan on Thursday. By next Saturday, Igor will be well east of Savannah and turning northward along longitude 68 west. If this materializes, it will pass well east of Cape Cod on Monday, having no direct impact on the U.S. except for some high surf.

JULIA HAS FORMED: Tropical Storm Julia was named just a few minutes ago southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It will be passing near the islands on Monday, strengthening as it goes and it should become a hurricane on Tuesday. Julia will likely turn to the northwest fairly quickly toward a weakness in the high pressure ridge across the Atlantic. But there is a chance that it could turn back to the west southwest next weekend. It still should be well north of the islands and it should not amount to much more than a minimal hurricane in the next seven days, but after that, all bets are off.

INVEST 92L: The disturbance over the Caribbean is still having a hard time getting its act together. It is producing a lot of convection, but no longer has a strong circulation. The GFS still does not recognize it amounting to anything. We will keep our fingers crossed that the model is right.

Source: ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Forecast Tracks for Systems in the Tropics…

IGOR

JULIA

Gridiron Rainbow…

Thanks to Elizabeth Smith for this image captured at the Jacksonville State stadium late yesterday following a thunderstorm.

Source: ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Tropical Depression 12 Forms…

Tropical depression number 12 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic this morning. That’s it on the right. It is moving west at 14 mph, but is expected to turn northwest into a weakness in the high pressure ridge over the Atlantic. It should become a tropical storm by this evening and a hurricane by Tuesday morning.

Igor is on the left side of the image. It is now a category two hurricane with top winds of 105 mph and is expected to become a major hurricane later today. The forecast continues to take Igor on a track similar to that of Hurricane Earl, curving it north of the islands then moving it along longitude 70 west and a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Cod.

Igor will be quite the intense hurricane before it is all said and done, likely attaining category four intensity by Tuesday.

The disturbance over the Caribbean still has not developed but the thought is that it will become a depression as it moves toward the western Caribbean. It could then hit the Yucatan as a fairly strong hurricane and move into northeastern Mexico. There is little support from the models for the idea that it could get into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Source: ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Slightly Cooler…

Slightly cooler today with the passage of a “cool” front. Not necessarily a cold front. Our much anticipated rain and storms fizzled after sunset. My rain gauge didn’t have one drop of measurable rain. As I went to bed, I could see a few flashes of lightning far to the south, but it was well out of range of us.

No rain in the forecast for the next seven days. Highs in the high eighties to lower nineties with cool nights will be the norm.  We have a chance of dense fog off the Chattahoochee this morning, but I don’t think it will happen as it normally doesn’t when they predict it. 

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 12, 4:55 am EDT Fair 73 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: NW 5 MPH Barometer: 29.96" Dewpoint: 73 °F (23 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor Becomes a Hurricane…

Igor has been upgraded to a hurricane late tonight. The 75 mph hurricane is 1350 miles east of the island of St. Martin in the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving west at 17 mph. It is still expected to pass north of the Leeward Island ealry next week and should become a large and intense hurricane. By next weekend, it will be curving off the coast of the Northeast U.S., a few hundred miles east of Cape Code, sort of like Hurricane Earl.

The disturbance over the eastern Caribbean is a little less organized, but still has a decent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.

The disturbance that just moved off the African Coast is very close to already being a tropical depression and we could see advisories start shortly.

Rain Chances Increase…

Rain chances increase as a meandering cold front tries to push deeper south.  The NWS is giving us a fifty percent chance for the evening – the biggest chance of rain we have had in over two weeks. It has been a dry start to the Fall. A slight cool down will accompany the front with highs in the upper eighties most days and the lows hovering around sixty degrees. It will take a much stronger, more robust cold front to bring Fall to us this far south. This front just isn’t going to do that.

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 11, 6:15 am EDT Fair 66 °F (19 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 29.93" Dewpoint: 66 °F (19 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor Set to Become a Hurricane…

IGOR: Tropical Storm Igor is 2,200 miles east of St. Martin tonight, moving west at 20 mph. Top winds are 50 mph.

The storm is gradually looking more impressive on satellite imagery this evening, but it is still undergoing some shear.

The storm will slowly strengthen, becoming a hurricane during the next 24 hours. As it does, it will also slow its forward progress.

By Wednesday, it will be turning more to the northwest and will pass about 500 miles northeast of St. Martin as a major hurricane. By next weekend, Igor will be an even more powerful storm east of the Bahamas, moving northwest slowly. All indications are that the hurricane will turn north and then northeast, to the east of the East Coast.

JULIA: Is a strong disturbance over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Investigations have shown a strong low level circulation, so it is only a matter of time until it becomes a tropical depression and tropical storm over the next couple of days.

Some of the models like the GFDL carry it toward the Yucatan Peninsula as a major hurricane by Wednesday. Could it get into the Gulf? Only time will tell. Reassuringly, the GFS was reliable in its forecasts for the remnant low for Gaston, and it does not forecast this disturbance to amount to anything.

Tropical Storm Julia?

A strong tropical wave in the southeast Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia by the weekend as it moves to the west/northwest. There is a chance this one could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it also could move into either the Yucatan Peninsula, or even Central America. Too early to make the call, but certainly this will be one to watch.

Will Fall Ever Arrive?

Will fall ever arrive?  It seems business as usual as far as summer goes.  We have a slight, and a mean very slight, chance of rain today with a high around the middle nineties.  Rain chances increase on Saturday and Saturday night with a cold front stalled across the middle of the state.  Temperatures cool off only a few degrees after the front passes. 

I’ve been looking at some of the temperatures across the country this morning.  It is close to freezing in Yellowstone at this hour.  Minnesota and the lows are in the forties.  They are getting their taste of Fall that we are missing out on.  Temperatures right now here are hovering in the upper sixties. 

A Look at the Weekend…

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 10, 4:15 am EDT Fair 66 °F (19 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: NA Barometer: 29.92" Dewpoint: 66 °F (19 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor Isn’t Going to be a Threat it Seems…

Tropical Storm Igor in the far eastern Atlantic has the potential to become a powerful hurricane in coming days, but the GFS and the ECMWF models  re-curve the system into the westerlies before reaching the U.S. East Coast next week. It doesn’t seem like a threat to even get close to the Gulf of Mexico.  There is a tropical wave near the Windward islands and this will need to be watched closely. 

Bright Sunshiny Day…

As I’ve often said before, September is just another summer month this far south.  It doesn’t look like we are going to get a break from the heat soon.  The nights are pleasant, though, if it wasn’t for the humidity.  The humidity makes it feel much warmer than it actually is.  Slight chance of storms Saturday night, but it doesn’t like like a big weather event.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we have some diurnal pop-up thunderstorms today even though it is not in the forecast.  Showers erupted yesterday across north central Alabama causing some excitement on this end of the computer.

Current Conditions…

view Yesterday's Weather La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 9, 3:55 am EDT Fair 70 °F (21 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 29.98" Dewpoint: 70 °F (21 °C) Visibility: 5.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Will Igor Become a Hurricane?

It looks like Igor is set to become a hurricane sometime during the day on Saturday.  The course is still uncertain this far out.  Some models keep it south heading into the Caribbean.  Other models send it on a northwesterly course to curve into the open Atlantic basin much like that past few storms we have had. 

Another strong wave is set to come off the African coast to skirt the Cape Verde islands.  This is looking much more impressive than the wave that formed Igor.  There is also a tropical wave just north of South America that looks unorganized as of yet. We will have to watch and see if it forms into anything in the next few days.  It’s that time of the year folks – the most active time in the tropics. 

Impacts of Hermine…

As I predicted, Hermine was a much bigger deal than hurricane Earl and The Weather Channel downplayed it.  It caught them by surprise.  There was a lot more flooding and fiscal costs associated with Hermine by far.  Earl was more glamorous and newsworthy to The Weather Channel skirting the east coast headed for such populous regions as Cape Cod, Boston, and New York.  Earl was a flop to be blunt as far as landfall goes much to all our relief.