Stagnant Weather…

A very stagnant weather pattern continues to play out for the South this week. September is winding down and there must be some relief in sight. When it will come, the models aren’t sure. The GFS is still hinting at major changes around the 1st of October. I was trying to think when we usually get our first frost and it is around the 17th of November so we have a long ways to go for cooler weather it seems.

We had some convection in the area pop up late yesterday afternoon which was more than the weather guessers had predicted. We didn’t get any rain here, but South of Birmingham saw a lot of action with some storms being quite strong. The dry front that is causing this still continues to meander around central Alabama today so it will be interesting for the late afternoon to see if anything else develops.

Current Conditions as of 3:15am…

Much warmer night tonight – feeling almost balmy and summer-like. You can also tell the humidity has increased the past few days. 

view Yesterday's Weather Auburn-Opelika Airport Lat: 32.62   Lon: -85.44   Elev: 774 Last Update on Sep 20, 3:15 am CDT Fair 73 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 69 % Wind Speed: E 3 MPH Barometer: 30.02" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

First Big Snow of the Season…

Montana and the northwest is seeing their first snow of the season. What does this bode for  us? I guess it means somebody is getting a taste of winter early. I got so excited for those in Montana when I saw blue and pink on the national radar. We need a strong cold front like this to change our stagnant weather pattern of mild nights and hot days. 

Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport Last Update on 17 Sep 10:42 MDT Lt Snow, Fog 34°F (1°C) Humidity: 93 % Wind Speed: calm Barometer: 30.28 in (N/A mb) Dewpoint: 32°F (0°C) Wind Chill: 34°F (1°C) Visibility: 2.50 Miles More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Our Forecast…

There is a “dry” front meandering through central Alabama today. I say dry in that it will only reduce the humidity levels slightly with no relief in sight as far as the warm daily temperatures are concerned.

view Yesterday's Weather La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 17, 12:35 pm EDT Fair 90 °F (32 °C) Humidity: 38 % Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH Barometer: 30.05" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Heat Index: 90 °F (32 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

A Look at the Afternoon Forecast…

A Quick Look at the Weekend in Store…

Gradual Warm Up…

A gradual warm up is in store as fall continues to refuse to grace us with its presence. Less cool nights and warmer days will be the norm with no rain in sight. My lawn is officially dead and so is my lawncare business – with no lawns to mow with the grass no longer growing unless it is watered heavily. They will soon be talking about our drought in all the weather related outlets no doubt as tropical weather mania fades as the season for such ends.

We had some convection erupt over central Alabama yesterday that caught all the weather guessers by surprise. Even a few strong storms bubbled up near Birmingham. This perplexed me as well as the humidity and dewpoint levels were so low – not much moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Must have been some instability in the upper level atmosphere to cause it. These kind of things can only be caught with weather balloons and atmospheric sounding, and not computer weather models.

The long range forecast looks pretty grim for us weather fans it seems, or our lawns for that matter. No rain or interesting weather in sight. Our only hope is a tropical system forming in the central gulf and moving into the Southern states.  The jet stream is centered across the northern tier of states with a very predominant high centered over the Southern gulf states.  This is keeping cold fronts from entering the South. This is also steering all Cape Verde tropical storms away from the mainland.

Current Weather…

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 16, 2:55 am EDT Fair 61 °F (16 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.09" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Weather Around the Country From The Weather Channel…

Northeast | View Regional Video

A storm system rolls through the region today and tonight spreading a wide swath of rain, showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half of the day the rain should fall in central and western sections of New York and Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia. This afternoon the precipitation marches eastward reaching all areas except southern and eastern Virginia.

Some of the thunderstorms could become severe in western Pennsylvania and West Virginia producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.

High temperatures should be held in the 60s to middle 70s in New England, New York, all but southeastern Pennsylvania, western Maryland and northern West Virginia. Elsewhere temperatures should climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s. A few areas in eastern Virginia could top the 90-degree mark.

The storm continues its eastward journey tonight spreading locally heavy rain and thunderstorms through New England, eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Light showers and a few thundershowers are possible in central and western New York, central and western Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia.

Midwest | View Regional Video

A storm system departs eastern parts of the region by this evening. Rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky from the storm.

Some of the thunderstorms could turn severe this afternoon in central and eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky producing damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly an isolated tornado.

Another system brings showers and some thunderstorms to North Dakota this afternoon and evening. None of those storms is expected to become severe.

The remainder of the region should have a mix of clouds and sun and remain dry.

High temperatures should hold in the upper 50s to upper 60s in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and northern Illinois. High temperatures should reach the 70s to very low 80s over the remainder of the region.

West | View Regional Video

Showers are expected along the Northwest coast, in eastern Washington, northern Idaho and the northern half of Montana today. Several systems rotating around a big storm in the Gulf of Alaska are responsible for the murky weather today.

A wave of steadier and heavier showers is expected in northwestern California, western Oregon and western Washington later this afternoon through the evening hours. A third wave of rain is forecast to reach those same areas Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are anticipated in southern New Mexico today and in southwestern New Mexico and eastern Arizona tomorrow. A few of the thunderstorms in northeast New Mexico could produce strong winds and some hail this afternoon and early evening.

The remainder of the region should be dry both days.

High temperatures range from the 60s and 70s in Montana, western parts of Washington and Oregon and along the California coast to a 100 to 110 degree range in the deserts today.

Much cooler air moves into northern Montana tonight and Friday keeping high temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon.

The Tropics…

I am about tropic’ed out – growing bored with tropical weather. All these storms which all the weather websites are obsessing over are no threat whatsoever to the U.S. mainland. I want weather that is applicable to me and my life – not swirling storms in the central Atlantic only dangerous to shipping lanes and lone islands.  Just to be true to weather blog form and going with the crowd, here are the storms and their predicted tracks…

Hurricane Igor

Hurricane Julia

Tropical Storm Karl

Pleasant Nights In Store…

Pleasant nights ahead and somewhat cooler days are in store for us this week. The NWS has a 20 percent chance of rain returning on Friday and Friday night. It doesn’t look promising, though. The NWS will tweak this forecast as Friday approaches.

As the weeks progress, the temperatures will slowly start to drop as Fall arrives.  Each week getting cooler nights and cooler days. It will take a strong cold front to make a bigger change in this pattern. Monday of next week the forecast high is only to be 87. That will feel downright cool compared to the hot weather we have had this summer.

Current Conditions…

It is jacket and pullover weather this morning. I just walked outside of work to see how it felt and it feels chilly for me at least. I am so cold natured. I am glad I am no longer gathering carts as the cooler weather starts to settle in. There are perks to my new position – a climate controlled environment.

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 13, 3:35 am EDT Fair 66 °F (19 °C) Humidity: 64 % Wind Speed: N 3 MPH Barometer: 30.03" Dewpoint: 54 °F (12 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor is Rivaling Earl in Strength…

IGOR IS ONE POWERFUL HURRICANE: Igor is very close to tying Earl for the honor of being the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2010 season. In fact, there are several similarities between the two storms. One in the intensity. Igor boasts top winds of 140 mph and could get even stronger today. . Earl peaked at 145 mph.

Another is the forecast track. Igor is about 1030 miles east of the island of St. Martin tonight, still heading to the west. Igor should begin turning to the west northwest on Monday and will pass about 500 miles northeast of San Juan on Thursday. By next Saturday, Igor will be well east of Savannah and turning northward along longitude 68 west. If this materializes, it will pass well east of Cape Cod on Monday, having no direct impact on the U.S. except for some high surf.

JULIA HAS FORMED: Tropical Storm Julia was named just a few minutes ago southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It will be passing near the islands on Monday, strengthening as it goes and it should become a hurricane on Tuesday. Julia will likely turn to the northwest fairly quickly toward a weakness in the high pressure ridge across the Atlantic. But there is a chance that it could turn back to the west southwest next weekend. It still should be well north of the islands and it should not amount to much more than a minimal hurricane in the next seven days, but after that, all bets are off.

INVEST 92L: The disturbance over the Caribbean is still having a hard time getting its act together. It is producing a lot of convection, but no longer has a strong circulation. The GFS still does not recognize it amounting to anything. We will keep our fingers crossed that the model is right.

Source: ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Forecast Tracks for Systems in the Tropics…

IGOR

JULIA

Slightly Cooler…

Slightly cooler today with the passage of a “cool” front. Not necessarily a cold front. Our much anticipated rain and storms fizzled after sunset. My rain gauge didn’t have one drop of measurable rain. As I went to bed, I could see a few flashes of lightning far to the south, but it was well out of range of us.

No rain in the forecast for the next seven days. Highs in the high eighties to lower nineties with cool nights will be the norm.  We have a chance of dense fog off the Chattahoochee this morning, but I don’t think it will happen as it normally doesn’t when they predict it. 

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 12, 4:55 am EDT Fair 73 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: NW 5 MPH Barometer: 29.96" Dewpoint: 73 °F (23 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor Becomes a Hurricane…

Igor has been upgraded to a hurricane late tonight. The 75 mph hurricane is 1350 miles east of the island of St. Martin in the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving west at 17 mph. It is still expected to pass north of the Leeward Island ealry next week and should become a large and intense hurricane. By next weekend, it will be curving off the coast of the Northeast U.S., a few hundred miles east of Cape Code, sort of like Hurricane Earl.

The disturbance over the eastern Caribbean is a little less organized, but still has a decent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.

The disturbance that just moved off the African Coast is very close to already being a tropical depression and we could see advisories start shortly.

Rain Chances Increase…

Rain chances increase as a meandering cold front tries to push deeper south.  The NWS is giving us a fifty percent chance for the evening – the biggest chance of rain we have had in over two weeks. It has been a dry start to the Fall. A slight cool down will accompany the front with highs in the upper eighties most days and the lows hovering around sixty degrees. It will take a much stronger, more robust cold front to bring Fall to us this far south. This front just isn’t going to do that.

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 11, 6:15 am EDT Fair 66 °F (19 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 29.93" Dewpoint: 66 °F (19 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Igor Set to Become a Hurricane…

IGOR: Tropical Storm Igor is 2,200 miles east of St. Martin tonight, moving west at 20 mph. Top winds are 50 mph.

The storm is gradually looking more impressive on satellite imagery this evening, but it is still undergoing some shear.

The storm will slowly strengthen, becoming a hurricane during the next 24 hours. As it does, it will also slow its forward progress.

By Wednesday, it will be turning more to the northwest and will pass about 500 miles northeast of St. Martin as a major hurricane. By next weekend, Igor will be an even more powerful storm east of the Bahamas, moving northwest slowly. All indications are that the hurricane will turn north and then northeast, to the east of the East Coast.

JULIA: Is a strong disturbance over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Investigations have shown a strong low level circulation, so it is only a matter of time until it becomes a tropical depression and tropical storm over the next couple of days.

Some of the models like the GFDL carry it toward the Yucatan Peninsula as a major hurricane by Wednesday. Could it get into the Gulf? Only time will tell. Reassuringly, the GFS was reliable in its forecasts for the remnant low for Gaston, and it does not forecast this disturbance to amount to anything.

Summer Returns to the South…

A much more summer-like pattern returns to the South with an engulf of Gulf of Mexico moisture and highs in the lower nineties.   I look forward to the rain chances every afternoon and will keep an eye on the radar.  This will probably be our last chance at this pattern before another more vigorous cold front is due for the fall changing things permanently.  Hermine heads into the Midwest giving them a taste of weather we often get during tropical weather season. 

 

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Thursday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 89. Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 62. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Current Conditions as of 5:55am…

 

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 8, 5:55 am EDT Fair 63 °F (17 °C) Humidity: NA Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.10" Dewpoint: NA Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Gulf Moisture and Warmth Returns…

Current Conditions as of 5:35am…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 7, 5:35 am EDT Fair 63 °F (17 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: NA Barometer: 30.16" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Long Term Forecast…

The NWS has revised their forecast once again bringing in the possibility of afternoon showers towards the end of the week.  Warm temperatures will also arrive as each night and day grows warmer.  Are we having our Indian summer?  I was trying to think this morning when the leaves begin to turn and it is usually around Halloween this far south.  I am hoping this will put my new leaf blower to work for my lawn care business. 

Will Hermine Have More Impact Than Earl?

Hermine is headed into south Texas this morning.  The radar echoes last night looked very much like a Hurricane or very strong tropical storm.   The Weather Channel made a big deal out of Earl, but I fear Hermine will have a much greater affect on the lower 48 states.  Especially Texas.  Flooding rains will most likely be the most dangerous threat than high winds.  Flash flooding is one of the more dangerous weather phenomena's killing more people per year than almost any other.   If there is death and destruction, then The Weather Channel will be there to report it. 

A Look at the Tropics…

  The Atlantic basin looks quiet tonight and so does the Caribbean region.  There is a strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa as you can see in the image to the left.  It does look impressive, but there is a very strong central Atlantic high off the coast of the United States and this will most likely steer any storms that develop out of our way.  We still have a few more months of Hurricane season, but I just don’t think this year will be a banter year despite what was predicted by all the weather models. 

Pleasant Weather Ahead…

Pleasant weather is in store for the South.  Maggie and Caramel stayed out all day yesterday enjoying the wonderful weather and I missed having them inside.  They soon can toodling in around about the time I was leaving for work.  Caramel is Maggie’s constant companion.

No rain in the forecast much to my chagrin, though.  The nights will continue to be cool and the days warm.  Perfect Fall weather for the South.  September usually just means another summer month this far below the Mason Dixon line so this touch of Fall has been very exciting!

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 6, 5:55 am EDT NA 52 °F (11 °C) Humidity: NA Wind Speed: NA Barometer: 30.07" Dewpoint: NA Visibility: NA

Tropical Storm Hermine…

Tropical Storm Hermine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico mainland.  This will mean up to a foot of rain for some areas in South Texas.  I hope it meanders toward the Southeast to bring us much needed rain.  Tropical storm and hurricane season tends to last until early November, so I am hoping we will have many more chances such as Hermine for rain.  It bodes well for my yard care business with my season of mowing soon to end in a few months. 

Football Weather!

Well, it is safe to safe that we are having our first taste of fall.  I fell asleep yesterday evening with my windows open and it was very chilly when I awoke in the middle of the night.  I had to turn on the heat with me being so cold natured. 

Look at our temperatures for tonight and Sunday night!  I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS pushes these temperatures down even farther.  We have a cold front blowing through today, but shouldn’t see any rain or storms with it – the atmosphere just being entirely too dry for such things.  It won’t stop me from watching the radar obsessively, though, with my hopes up.  I wouldn’t mind to see a little weather action in the South today.

The long term forecast looks dry for almost 14 days out.  I doesn’t look like we will get any rain anytime soon and my yard will go back from being green to brown again shortly.   I refuse to water it and it is centipede – being a very hardy form of grass that weathers such dry spells well. 

Saying Goodbye to Earl…

Well, Earl was as much as I had expected.  Much ado over nothing.  This didn’t stop The Weather Channel from making a big deal out of it, though.  I vowed today not to watch that channel anymore and will rely on the internet for my weather needs.  I can get exactly the weather information I need at the touch of a button without it being sensationalized for ratings.  The last I looked, Earl is a tropical storms and will give some much needed rain to Nova Scotia.  

The Weather Channel Sighs…

As I predicted, Earl is taking a more northeasterly course. Hurricanes just tend to turn to the Northeast climatologically. This will send The Weather Channel correspondents on a mad scurry up the coast to catch the action they hope will now occur in Massachusetts and Maine. Can you tell I am so cynical about The Weather Channel these days? If I wanted sensationalized weather news, then I could watch Fox News.

Saturday Looks Like a Hit for Labor Day Weekend…

The NWS has tweaked our forecast once again pushing the temperatures lower for Saturday and Saturday night. I am hoping this will bode for an early Fall in the South. I have grown tired of Summer and all the bland green choosing to prefer the bland brown of Winter for a change. I get so excited at the change of seasons. It makes for interesting weather in the South as cold fronts blow through. 53 degrees is going to feel almost winter-like for this cold natured soul. I’ve already got an extra quilt thrown on the bed for the ready.

A Touch of Fall in the South…

There is a touch of fall in store for the South this weekend with lows getting down to 56 degrees Saturday night.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS tweaks this further and pushes the temps even lower.  Perfect football weather with college football’s first games of the season coming on Saturday.  My father will be at the game like he always is with his season tickets every year.  The daytime highs will also be more comfortable with low humidity and the mid eighties. 

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 1, 1:15 pm EDT Fair 88 °F (31 °C) Humidity: 43 % Wind Speed: SE 8 MPH Barometer: 30.08" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Heat Index: 89 °F (32 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi

Earl’s Track…

I think it is safe to say that Earl will only be a threat for maritime regions and not the South.  I may be going out on a limb, but only Nova Scotia and Canada will feel the true effects of this storm.  This will not stop The Weather Channel from having wall-to-wall coverage, though, and trying to stir residents of North Carolina into a frenzy.  Much ado about nothing is what I will say. 

An Overcast Day?

They are saying partly cloudy today, but I have a feeling it is going to be cool and overcast all day.  We are showing echoes of rainfall on the radar nearby, but it must be virgo and not falling to the ground. 

It was very cool when I arrived at work. I planned ahead and wore one of my fleece pullovers with me being so cold natured.  When the temperatures drop below 80 degrees then I am uncomfortable.

Look at our lows for the next two night.  63 degrees respectively. Downright chilly and some would say this is good football weather.  The local high school is not far from my house and I could hear the band practicing last night and it brought back many fond memories.

Earl Ramps Up…

Well, it seems like Earl is wanting to impress us.  I laughed last night watching the weather channel as they foamed at the mouth over a storm that really isn’t threatening anyone just yet.  They showed of video of one of the Carribbean islands and it was just raining some with some gusty winds.  It didn’t look like people were dying or houses were getting blow away much to their chagrin.  I am so cynical about the weather channel these days. 

Fiona is not far behind, but doesn’t look very impressive or organized.  I doubt she will be a major player in the grand scheme of things.  Earl sapping all her energy and the upwelling of cooler ocean water causing her to flounder. 

A Look at the Weather…

Look at our forecast lows!  You can really tell fall is around the corner.  62 degrees on Wednesday night will feel downright chilly.  I will have to wear warm clothes at work as the coolest temps often come just before dawn when I am at my busiest.  Highs will still get in the nineties most days, but nothing like that obscene heat we had just a few short weeks ago.  The change of seasons are always my favorite times of the year and often bring the most interesting weather.  Ah, spring and fall, how I love ye!

Looking at Earl…

Well, it doesn’t look like Earl is going to be a threat to anyone.  We have two opposing high pressure systems steering these storms.  I personally would not like any to hit land just to spite The Weather Channel which I affectionately call the death and destruction channel.  They love for people to die and for shit to get blown apart.  It means more money for them and better ratings.  Lets look at the forecast models which all seem to be pretty consistent in their predictions…

Tracking Earl and It’s Impacts…

Where is Earl Going?

I think it is safe to say that hurricane Danielle is no longer a threat to the mainland – soon headed for cooler waters to die.  Earl will probably become a hurricane today and where is he going?  I thought he was heading for the Caribbean, but models say he is going to take a turn for the north – just skirting Puerto Rico. There are still several more interesting tropical features off the coast of Africa that bear watching.  Hurricane season started like a lamb, and seems to be wanting to go out like a lion. 

Dreary and Overcast Today…

That is my prediction for the day, rainy and overcast – casting a dreary pall over this part of the South.  We badly need the rain, though, being in a deficit for both the month and the year.  It will bode well for my yard care business as I hoping the grass will grow by leaps and bounds.  As the day heats up, we should get a few rumbles of thunder as well – the atmosphere being so unstable.  I so look forward to interesting weather like this after weeks of boredom weather-wise.   

Something Stirring in the Gulf…

There seems to be something stirring in the gulf – something subtropical in nature.  It has been cloudy and overcast all morning with bands of rain starting to form and move our way.  This should keep temps down with the cloud cover and we have a 60 percent chance of showers tonight.  We badly need the rain. 

 

Bland Weather for Today…

It’s chilly, overcast, and cloudy this morning.  The perfect morning to stay inside and write until your heart’s content.   So, that’s what I am doing today.  We have a slight 20% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow.  It doesn’t look promising.  The Weather Channel’s Local on the Eights is saying some snow my mix in, but it is going to be too warm for that I think.   We have some very cold mornings ahead, but the days look mild comparatively to the cold snap we had last month.  No more rain in the immediate future after today and tomorrow.  

A Look Ahead…

Sigh!  It looks like another cold snap is in store for us after another front.  I was hoping we were through with such weather having had my snow for the year.   I really need to take a gander at some of the longer range weather models and see what they reveal.  I have Spring fever!