Stagnant Weather…

A very stagnant weather pattern continues to play out for the South this week. September is winding down and there must be some relief in sight. When it will come, the models aren’t sure. The GFS is still hinting at major changes around the 1st of October. I was trying to think when we usually get our first frost and it is around the 17th of November so we have a long ways to go for cooler weather it seems.

We had some convection in the area pop up late yesterday afternoon which was more than the weather guessers had predicted. We didn’t get any rain here, but South of Birmingham saw a lot of action with some storms being quite strong. The dry front that is causing this still continues to meander around central Alabama today so it will be interesting for the late afternoon to see if anything else develops.

Current Conditions as of 3:15am…

Much warmer night tonight – feeling almost balmy and summer-like. You can also tell the humidity has increased the past few days. 

view Yesterday's Weather Auburn-Opelika Airport Lat: 32.62   Lon: -85.44   Elev: 774 Last Update on Sep 20, 3:15 am CDT Fair 73 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 69 % Wind Speed: E 3 MPH Barometer: 30.02" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

First Big Snow of the Season…

Montana and the northwest is seeing their first snow of the season. What does this bode for  us? I guess it means somebody is getting a taste of winter early. I got so excited for those in Montana when I saw blue and pink on the national radar. We need a strong cold front like this to change our stagnant weather pattern of mild nights and hot days. 

Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport Last Update on 17 Sep 10:42 MDT Lt Snow, Fog 34°F (1°C) Humidity: 93 % Wind Speed: calm Barometer: 30.28 in (N/A mb) Dewpoint: 32°F (0°C) Wind Chill: 34°F (1°C) Visibility: 2.50 Miles More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Our Forecast…

There is a “dry” front meandering through central Alabama today. I say dry in that it will only reduce the humidity levels slightly with no relief in sight as far as the warm daily temperatures are concerned.

view Yesterday's Weather La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 17, 12:35 pm EDT Fair 90 °F (32 °C) Humidity: 38 % Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH Barometer: 30.05" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Heat Index: 90 °F (32 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

A Look at the Afternoon Forecast…

A Quick Look at the Weekend in Store…

Gradual Warm Up…

A gradual warm up is in store as fall continues to refuse to grace us with its presence. Less cool nights and warmer days will be the norm with no rain in sight. My lawn is officially dead and so is my lawncare business – with no lawns to mow with the grass no longer growing unless it is watered heavily. They will soon be talking about our drought in all the weather related outlets no doubt as tropical weather mania fades as the season for such ends.

We had some convection erupt over central Alabama yesterday that caught all the weather guessers by surprise. Even a few strong storms bubbled up near Birmingham. This perplexed me as well as the humidity and dewpoint levels were so low – not much moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Must have been some instability in the upper level atmosphere to cause it. These kind of things can only be caught with weather balloons and atmospheric sounding, and not computer weather models.

The long range forecast looks pretty grim for us weather fans it seems, or our lawns for that matter. No rain or interesting weather in sight. Our only hope is a tropical system forming in the central gulf and moving into the Southern states.  The jet stream is centered across the northern tier of states with a very predominant high centered over the Southern gulf states.  This is keeping cold fronts from entering the South. This is also steering all Cape Verde tropical storms away from the mainland.

Current Weather…

La Grange-Callawy Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 16, 2:55 am EDT Fair 61 °F (16 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.09" Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Weather Around the Country From The Weather Channel…

Northeast | View Regional Video

A storm system rolls through the region today and tonight spreading a wide swath of rain, showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half of the day the rain should fall in central and western sections of New York and Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia. This afternoon the precipitation marches eastward reaching all areas except southern and eastern Virginia.

Some of the thunderstorms could become severe in western Pennsylvania and West Virginia producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.

High temperatures should be held in the 60s to middle 70s in New England, New York, all but southeastern Pennsylvania, western Maryland and northern West Virginia. Elsewhere temperatures should climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s. A few areas in eastern Virginia could top the 90-degree mark.

The storm continues its eastward journey tonight spreading locally heavy rain and thunderstorms through New England, eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Light showers and a few thundershowers are possible in central and western New York, central and western Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia.

Midwest | View Regional Video

A storm system departs eastern parts of the region by this evening. Rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky from the storm.

Some of the thunderstorms could turn severe this afternoon in central and eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky producing damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly an isolated tornado.

Another system brings showers and some thunderstorms to North Dakota this afternoon and evening. None of those storms is expected to become severe.

The remainder of the region should have a mix of clouds and sun and remain dry.

High temperatures should hold in the upper 50s to upper 60s in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and northern Illinois. High temperatures should reach the 70s to very low 80s over the remainder of the region.

West | View Regional Video

Showers are expected along the Northwest coast, in eastern Washington, northern Idaho and the northern half of Montana today. Several systems rotating around a big storm in the Gulf of Alaska are responsible for the murky weather today.

A wave of steadier and heavier showers is expected in northwestern California, western Oregon and western Washington later this afternoon through the evening hours. A third wave of rain is forecast to reach those same areas Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are anticipated in southern New Mexico today and in southwestern New Mexico and eastern Arizona tomorrow. A few of the thunderstorms in northeast New Mexico could produce strong winds and some hail this afternoon and early evening.

The remainder of the region should be dry both days.

High temperatures range from the 60s and 70s in Montana, western parts of Washington and Oregon and along the California coast to a 100 to 110 degree range in the deserts today.

Much cooler air moves into northern Montana tonight and Friday keeping high temperatures mostly in the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon.

The Tropics…

I am about tropic’ed out – growing bored with tropical weather. All these storms which all the weather websites are obsessing over are no threat whatsoever to the U.S. mainland. I want weather that is applicable to me and my life – not swirling storms in the central Atlantic only dangerous to shipping lanes and lone islands.  Just to be true to weather blog form and going with the crowd, here are the storms and their predicted tracks…

Hurricane Igor

Hurricane Julia

Tropical Storm Karl

Gridiron Rainbow…

Thanks to Elizabeth Smith for this image captured at the Jacksonville State stadium late yesterday following a thunderstorm.

Source: ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Bright Sunshiny Day…

As I’ve often said before, September is just another summer month this far south.  It doesn’t look like we are going to get a break from the heat soon.  The nights are pleasant, though, if it wasn’t for the humidity.  The humidity makes it feel much warmer than it actually is.  Slight chance of storms Saturday night, but it doesn’t like like a big weather event.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we have some diurnal pop-up thunderstorms today even though it is not in the forecast.  Showers erupted yesterday across north central Alabama causing some excitement on this end of the computer.

Current Conditions…

view Yesterday's Weather La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 9, 3:55 am EDT Fair 70 °F (21 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 29.98" Dewpoint: 70 °F (21 °C) Visibility: 5.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Will Igor Become a Hurricane?

It looks like Igor is set to become a hurricane sometime during the day on Saturday.  The course is still uncertain this far out.  Some models keep it south heading into the Caribbean.  Other models send it on a northwesterly course to curve into the open Atlantic basin much like that past few storms we have had. 

Another strong wave is set to come off the African coast to skirt the Cape Verde islands.  This is looking much more impressive than the wave that formed Igor.  There is also a tropical wave just north of South America that looks unorganized as of yet. We will have to watch and see if it forms into anything in the next few days.  It’s that time of the year folks – the most active time in the tropics. 

Impacts of Hermine…

As I predicted, Hermine was a much bigger deal than hurricane Earl and The Weather Channel downplayed it.  It caught them by surprise.  There was a lot more flooding and fiscal costs associated with Hermine by far.  Earl was more glamorous and newsworthy to The Weather Channel skirting the east coast headed for such populous regions as Cape Cod, Boston, and New York.  Earl was a flop to be blunt as far as landfall goes much to all our relief. 

Tropical Storm Igor Forms…

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

Summer Returns to the South…

A much more summer-like pattern returns to the South with an engulf of Gulf of Mexico moisture and highs in the lower nineties.   I look forward to the rain chances every afternoon and will keep an eye on the radar.  This will probably be our last chance at this pattern before another more vigorous cold front is due for the fall changing things permanently.  Hermine heads into the Midwest giving them a taste of weather we often get during tropical weather season. 

 

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Thursday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 89. Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 62. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Current Conditions as of 5:55am…

 

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 8, 5:55 am EDT Fair 63 °F (17 °C) Humidity: NA Wind Speed: Calm Barometer: 30.10" Dewpoint: NA Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Gulf Moisture and Warmth Returns…

Current Conditions as of 5:35am…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 7, 5:35 am EDT Fair 63 °F (17 °C) Humidity: 100 % Wind Speed: NA Barometer: 30.16" Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Long Term Forecast…

The NWS has revised their forecast once again bringing in the possibility of afternoon showers towards the end of the week.  Warm temperatures will also arrive as each night and day grows warmer.  Are we having our Indian summer?  I was trying to think this morning when the leaves begin to turn and it is usually around Halloween this far south.  I am hoping this will put my new leaf blower to work for my lawn care business. 

Will Hermine Have More Impact Than Earl?

Hermine is headed into south Texas this morning.  The radar echoes last night looked very much like a Hurricane or very strong tropical storm.   The Weather Channel made a big deal out of Earl, but I fear Hermine will have a much greater affect on the lower 48 states.  Especially Texas.  Flooding rains will most likely be the most dangerous threat than high winds.  Flash flooding is one of the more dangerous weather phenomena's killing more people per year than almost any other.   If there is death and destruction, then The Weather Channel will be there to report it. 

A Look at the Tropics…

  The Atlantic basin looks quiet tonight and so does the Caribbean region.  There is a strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa as you can see in the image to the left.  It does look impressive, but there is a very strong central Atlantic high off the coast of the United States and this will most likely steer any storms that develop out of our way.  We still have a few more months of Hurricane season, but I just don’t think this year will be a banter year despite what was predicted by all the weather models. 

Pleasant Weather Ahead…

Pleasant weather is in store for the South.  Maggie and Caramel stayed out all day yesterday enjoying the wonderful weather and I missed having them inside.  They soon can toodling in around about the time I was leaving for work.  Caramel is Maggie’s constant companion.

No rain in the forecast much to my chagrin, though.  The nights will continue to be cool and the days warm.  Perfect Fall weather for the South.  September usually just means another summer month this far below the Mason Dixon line so this touch of Fall has been very exciting!

Current Conditions…

La Grange-Callaway Airport Lat: 33.01   Lon: -85.07   Elev: 692 Last Update on Sep 6, 5:55 am EDT NA 52 °F (11 °C) Humidity: NA Wind Speed: NA Barometer: 30.07" Dewpoint: NA Visibility: NA

Tropical Storm Hermine…

Tropical Storm Hermine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico mainland.  This will mean up to a foot of rain for some areas in South Texas.  I hope it meanders toward the Southeast to bring us much needed rain.  Tropical storm and hurricane season tends to last until early November, so I am hoping we will have many more chances such as Hermine for rain.  It bodes well for my yard care business with my season of mowing soon to end in a few months. 

Football Weather!

Well, it is safe to safe that we are having our first taste of fall.  I fell asleep yesterday evening with my windows open and it was very chilly when I awoke in the middle of the night.  I had to turn on the heat with me being so cold natured. 

Look at our temperatures for tonight and Sunday night!  I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS pushes these temperatures down even farther.  We have a cold front blowing through today, but shouldn’t see any rain or storms with it – the atmosphere just being entirely too dry for such things.  It won’t stop me from watching the radar obsessively, though, with my hopes up.  I wouldn’t mind to see a little weather action in the South today.

The long term forecast looks dry for almost 14 days out.  I doesn’t look like we will get any rain anytime soon and my yard will go back from being green to brown again shortly.   I refuse to water it and it is centipede – being a very hardy form of grass that weathers such dry spells well. 

Saying Goodbye to Earl…

Well, Earl was as much as I had expected.  Much ado over nothing.  This didn’t stop The Weather Channel from making a big deal out of it, though.  I vowed today not to watch that channel anymore and will rely on the internet for my weather needs.  I can get exactly the weather information I need at the touch of a button without it being sensationalized for ratings.  The last I looked, Earl is a tropical storms and will give some much needed rain to Nova Scotia.  

An Overcast Day?

They are saying partly cloudy today, but I have a feeling it is going to be cool and overcast all day.  We are showing echoes of rainfall on the radar nearby, but it must be virgo and not falling to the ground. 

It was very cool when I arrived at work. I planned ahead and wore one of my fleece pullovers with me being so cold natured.  When the temperatures drop below 80 degrees then I am uncomfortable.

Look at our lows for the next two night.  63 degrees respectively. Downright chilly and some would say this is good football weather.  The local high school is not far from my house and I could hear the band practicing last night and it brought back many fond memories.

Earl Ramps Up…

Well, it seems like Earl is wanting to impress us.  I laughed last night watching the weather channel as they foamed at the mouth over a storm that really isn’t threatening anyone just yet.  They showed of video of one of the Carribbean islands and it was just raining some with some gusty winds.  It didn’t look like people were dying or houses were getting blow away much to their chagrin.  I am so cynical about the weather channel these days. 

Fiona is not far behind, but doesn’t look very impressive or organized.  I doubt she will be a major player in the grand scheme of things.  Earl sapping all her energy and the upwelling of cooler ocean water causing her to flounder. 

A Look at the Weather…

Look at our forecast lows!  You can really tell fall is around the corner.  62 degrees on Wednesday night will feel downright chilly.  I will have to wear warm clothes at work as the coolest temps often come just before dawn when I am at my busiest.  Highs will still get in the nineties most days, but nothing like that obscene heat we had just a few short weeks ago.  The change of seasons are always my favorite times of the year and often bring the most interesting weather.  Ah, spring and fall, how I love ye!

Looking at Earl…

Well, it doesn’t look like Earl is going to be a threat to anyone.  We have two opposing high pressure systems steering these storms.  I personally would not like any to hit land just to spite The Weather Channel which I affectionately call the death and destruction channel.  They love for people to die and for shit to get blown apart.  It means more money for them and better ratings.  Lets look at the forecast models which all seem to be pretty consistent in their predictions…

Tracking Earl and It’s Impacts…

Something Stirring in the Gulf…

There seems to be something stirring in the gulf – something subtropical in nature.  It has been cloudy and overcast all morning with bands of rain starting to form and move our way.  This should keep temps down with the cloud cover and we have a 60 percent chance of showers tonight.  We badly need the rain. 

 

Come On! Can’t We Reach 70?

It’s 66 degrees as I sit here and write this.  I can’t remember the last time it was so warm.  Maggie has been outside all day so that is a good indicator that the weather is nice. BUT!  We have thunderstorms rolling in for the evening.  Maybe late tonight you may hear some loud rumbles of thunder.  It will be so reminiscent of Spring and I am excited.  Thunder, second only to snow, is my favorite weather phenomenon. 

More Rain?

The phrase from famine to feast comes to mind with our amount of rain lately.  A few years ago we were in a severe drought.  Now?  We’re under a never ending deluge of rain.  El Niño in action I guess.  I hope we have lots of summer thunderstorms coming up.  That will bring me no end of joy. 

Possible Winter Weather?

I know Tuesday is a long way away in weather terms.  I know to only get excited the day before an event, but thought this was worth mentioning.  We have a slight chance for rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Long range models are so fickle though so don’t get your hopes up just yet winter weather lovers. 

Hydrologic Outlook from the NWS…

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS FOR AN ABOVE
NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

...RAINFALL...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
...ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO...HAS PRODUCED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.  SINCE THE FIRST
OF DECEMBER RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF
NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
TO 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST.

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS AVERAGED 13 TO 19 INCHES IN THE
NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...RANGING TO 20 TO 25 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.  SOME REPRESENTATIVE TOTALS TO DATE INCLUDE:

LOCATION               RAINFALL DEC. 1, 2009 TO PRESENT

HAMILTON                           15.37 INCHES
JASPER                             18.75 INCHES
BIRMINGHAM                         13.19 INCHES
TUSCALOOSA                         13.89 INCHES
ANNISTON                           13.74 INCHES
DEMOPOLIS                          16.42 INCHES
SELMA                              21.42 INCHES
MONTGOMERY                         20.73 INCHES
ALEXANDER CITY                     20.00 INCHES
TROY                               24.36 INCHES

The Near Term…