Rain/Sleet/Snow…. Thunder/Hail…. You Name It!

Tennessee is seeing a variety of weather tonight.  There have been reports of thunder mixed in with sleet and hail.  Could there be thundersnow?  The first time I heard thundersnow I was getting off of a 3rd shift stint for Martex.  I had been driving a fork lift all night, clocked out, and it was snowing and thundering as I made my way to the car.  I thought that was just fascinating and so unique!  That turned out to be "the storm of the century" and we got our biggest ever snowfall for eastern Alabama. 

Check out NashvilleWX to keep up with the weather in Tennessee.  And I will also be watching The Weather Guy's blog for reports of snow starting soon.  It must be awesome to live in Tennessee tonight for a weather fan!  We're just getting boring rain here. 

Our Short Term Forecast...

From the National Weather Service this hour...

.NOW...

ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 5 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 8 PM. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH 5 PM.

Rainy Days

It is going to be another rainy day and night. I was just looking at the radar and rain is headed our way from the Gulf of Mexico. It is also rather chilly at 48 degrees this hour. A look at out NWS forecast for today and tonight...

This Afternoon: Scattered rain, then occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 52. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tonight: Occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 37. East wind around 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Quiet, Windy, and Cold!

It was a quiet, windy, and cold day throughout the South.  I was sitting here at my computer, blogging, as I watched my neighbor's trash can go barreling across the yard in the wind -- and it is a heavy trash can.  The rain returns tomorrow with a 90 percent chance of showers for the South.  That jumps to 100 percent that night.  No severe storms are expected unlike Tennessee who had some in the last bout of storms.  We badly need the rain so each round of it is welcomed. 

Today's Sunset

Short Term Forecast...

.NOW...

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH 9 PM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONE HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MONTGOMERY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 4 AM.

Rain on the way...

No severe storms are expected for the rest of the night.  That atmosphere is just too stable to support them.  Look for a few hours of rain overnight followed by dropping temperatures as the front exits.  They are even seeing some snow to our north, far north that is. 

Do you all like the daily sunset photos?  I try to take them when I am home and have my camera.  Overcast days make me miss though and we seem to have a lot of overcast days in the winter.  Tonight's shot was taken standing in my neighbor's yard.  It just looked so blue and cool.  I added a lens flare effect with photoshop to give it panache. 

Today's Sunset

Storm Mode

We are in storm mode here at Andrew's Weather Blog. Some sources are saying we will have severe weather tonight. We are under a slight risk as reported by the Storm Prediction Center. It is also extremely windy today with a tight pressure gradient. Tonight's forecast...

Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then isolated showers. Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Low around 43. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Big Warm Up!

Here is a list of this morning's low temperatures.  This coming on top of a big warm-up today.  Today is just gorgeous with bright blue skies and nary a cloud.  The temperature is hovering around 63 degrees.  A significant storm system will move out of the Rockies today, and will bring our next rain event to Alabama within the next 36 hours.

18 in Gurley, Moulton, Hamilton
19 Rainbow City, Hanceville
20 Scrougout, Cottondale, Lincoln, Belle Mina
21 Kimberly, Ashland, Talladega
22 Concord/Hueytown, Vigo, Decatur, Pinson, Crossville, Sylacauga
23 Coker, Moody, Muscle Shoals, Meridianville, Russellville Airport
24 Alabaster/Navajo Pines, Anniston Airport, Huntsville, Grove Oak, Scottsboro, Valley Head
25 Cuba, Noccalula Falls, Vance, Troy Tuscaloosa, DeSoto State Park, Hazel Green
27 Oxford, Birmingham Airport, Shelby County Airport, Montgomery Dannelly Field, Bankhead National Forest, Cullman Airport
28 Evergreen
29 Selma
30 Dothan, Albertville
32 Auburn,
33 Mobile Regional Airport

Today's Sunset

Quiet in the East. Stormy in the West

The big weather headline for Sunday is the turbulent weather in the West.  Cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego are getting soaked.  Higher elevations are seeing snow. 

The East is quiet to start the week tomorrow.  That will change Tuesday and Tuesday night as thunderstorms are predicted to move through.  We have an 80 percent chance of showers Tuesday night.  Temperatures will be mild, though, so no wintry weather is expected for the South.

A Quiet Evening...

A quiet evening is in store for those of in the South.  Some fog is being reported, but it is not widespread.  The front that brought icy weather to some is pushing through Florida and will probably stall out.  The West is still dealing with torrential downpours and flooding.  A look at the Northeast shows snow as the low from this morning's Southern system slides up the East coast.  

In The Clear...

It seems we are in the clear as far as icy weather goes. I set my alarm clock to wake up at 4 AM to find a rain softly falling. The temperature is currently 34 at 4:48 AM. This is a very cold rain, though. Somehow, we just can't punch past that thermal barrier of 34 to 33 degrees. I am disappointed in not getting wintry weather, but am pretty glad the power didn't go out as can often happen in an ice storm. I can't live without my Internet.

 

Another big story is the rains in the West. Los Angeles is reporting flooding and they've had more rain in this storm than all of 2007. Isn't that just incredible?

 

Rainfall totals on Thursday in California include:

• Santa Barbara: 5.41"
• Morro Bay: 3.59"
• Oxnard: 3.55"
• Santa Maria: 3.16"
• Beverly Hills: 2.36"
• Downtown L.A.: 1.61"

Looking back at the East, the energy that will spark the icy mix across the Deep South by late Saturday will develop into a potent storm off the Eastern Seaboard. Bands of energy spiraling out from the core of the storm from late Sunday into Monday could pump snow and gusty winds into southeastern New England, including Boston, Mass., and Providence, R.I.

A look at the temperatures across the nation for the next few days will show another arctic blast on Tuesday for much of the Midwest with a moderating trend in the South...

City	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	City	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.
Bismarck	34	37	19	2	Minneapolis	26	34	42	12
Chicago	30	40	46	33	Omaha	40	39	49	22
Detroit	30	34	40	38	Pittsburgh	34	37	44	47
Washington, D.C.	40	41	48	45	Philadelphia	36	40	44	44
New York City	35	38	42	44	Boston	36	33	35	44
Raleigh	48	52	55	61	Atlanta	50	58	56	60

Afternoon Update...

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Central and North Alabama.  This does not include Chambers County -- the county I live in. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 101 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2008 ...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT... .A WINTRY MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 20...SO SOME PLACES IN THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING. ALZ011>015-017>032-034-260630- /O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0003.080126T0000Z-080126T1400Z/ MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN- CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR- TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-BIBB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON... FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN... ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA... BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER... PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE... LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...CENTREVILLE 101 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2008 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM...WHILE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL START MAINLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. SLICK SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES... AND POWER LINES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MELTING ANY ICE THAT ACCUMULATES. THIS IS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR LISTEN FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A WARNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Icy Threat?

The Jackson National Weather Service office is considering an ice storm warning for North Mississippi. It would be for areas along and north of a line from Bastrop to yazoo city and east to Noxubee county. Just looking at the radar and the current temps makes me wonder if the NWS will issue a winter weather advisory for our area. This has caught all the forecasters by surprise. If you have to travel tonight, be aware that bridge icing may be a very real possibility.

A storm spinning off the coast of California through the weekend will pound the Golden State with heavy rain and mountain snow. The worst weather will come late Saturday and Sunday, when mudslides and flooding will be a serious concern.

Here is a look at some of the temperatures around the nation...

City	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	City	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.
Bismarck	20	34	37	19	Minneapolis	18	26	34	42
Chicago	24	30	40	46	Dallas	38	68	71	73
Detroit	24	30	34	40	Pittsburgh	29	34	37	44
Washington, D.C.	37	40	41	48	Philadelphia	32	36	40	44
New York City	32	35	38	42	Boston	29	36	33	35
Raleigh	39	48	52	55	Atlanta	39	50	58	56

Hard Freeze Tonight...

A hard freeze is in store for Alabama tonight. Temperatures should run the gamut of 16 to 26 degrees. Make sure pets are brought in. I will be watching my neighbor to see if he brings his dog in from it's small pen. The dog is kind of neglected.

There is a slight chance of rain/sleet/snow Friday night which should prove interesting. I am hoping we get a little of the white stuff. The National Weather Service is downplaying this event, though.

Cold Invades...

A short lived arctic blast will invade the east coast in the next few days. The big story is the bouts of rain and snow for the mountains on the west coast.

Wind chill advisories are once again in place for the Midwest. The combination of a fresh shot of arctic air and biting winds will create wind chill values that are much lower than actual temperature readings.

The rain for the South was short lived and not very potent. We need all the rain we can get to claw out of our deficit. There was widespread reports of ice in Northeast Alabama and eastern Tennessee near Knoxville.

Here is a look at some upcoming temperatures for the week. You can see the arctic blast, but it is not going to stick around long. Temperatures will be back to seasonal averages before long...

City	Wed.	Thu.	Fri.	Sat.	City	Wed.	Thu.	Fri.	Sat.
Bismarck	8	25	25	31	Minneapolis	4	14	22	30
Chicago	19	13	28	34	Indianapolis	30	18	30	38
Detroit	24	18	24	32	Pittsburgh	30	24	27	36
Washington, D.C.	45	38	36	41	Philadelphia	41	34	29	39
New York City	42	32	28	37	Boston	36	30	26	36
Raleigh	50	46	39	46	Atlanta	52	44	43	54

Cloudy, Chilly, Rainy...

There was some initial concerns that we may have some slippery roads before daybreak -- mainly to our north near Nashville. These concerns were mostly unjustified, though, as the temperatures have stayed well above freezing with a southerly flow. We are in for a cloudy, chilly, and rainy day. The main bulk of the moisture is over Mississippi, but will slowly make its way east as the day progresses.

The main story today is the Northeast snows occurring. Many regions of our northern states will see up to three inches of snow. The lakeshore of Michigan and northern New England will have up to 6 inches of snow, according to the Winter Weather Center.

Here is a look at the temperatures around the South for the upcoming week...

City	Avg.	Tues.	Wed.	Thurs.	Fri.
Raleigh-Durham	50	43	45	40	39
Charlotte	52	42	46	46	42
Atlanta	52	48	49	42	52
Nashville	46	44	42	28	38
New Orleans	62	68	57	52	55
Charleston	59	60	60	53	53
Jacksonville	64	68	69	60	56
Miami	77	78	80	78	73

Today's Sunset

Iffy Weather for Tennessee...

Our friends to the north may see some wintry weather tonight.  Temperatures are predicted to drop below freezing overnight as an impulse from Texas moves over spreading rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow.  This is not supposed to be a widespread event and temps should rise above freezing during the day minimizing problems.   Still, it must be exciting to live in Tennessee today!

Winter Weather Advisory for Tennessee

A Look Ahead...

The National Weather Service forecast discussion for the upcoming week...

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. FOR OUR AREA EXPECTING A TEMP RANGE OF MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE CURRENT OHIO RIVER VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP AND RETURN OF LOWER BOUNDARY MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BACK TO BACK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A LOWER BOUNDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND A STRONGER DRY FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS IS NOT TO FAR OFF OF YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS...BUT TRANSLATES INTO DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. THIS TIME AROUND BEST...AND ALMOST ONLY...PRECIP CHANCES COME ON TUESDAY. POP CHANCES RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE TO JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL. TYPE OF PRECIP...WAIT FOR IT...WAIT FOR IT...ALL RAIN. SOME CONCERN DOES COME WAY DOWN THE ROAD FOR NEXT SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY SEEING A WEDGE ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE TAKES RESIDENCE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN OVER-RUNNING SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SAID CONCERN WILL HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE. IF I WAS FORECASTING IT TO HAPPEN TOMORROW I WOULD SAY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. HOWEVER...I AM NOT FORECASTING FOR TOMORROW...KEPT THE WEDGE WEAKER AND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

Today's Sunset

Current Weather

Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing today.  High pressure is in control with a cold and brisk wind out of the North.  Our next system will move in on Tuesday, but no winter weather is expected.  By next weekend, temperatures will have rebounded as a weekend system moves through. 

We still have some snow on the ground but it is quickly melting in a brilliant sun.  Snow is so fleeting in the South.  Hard to come and even easier to go.  If you are going to make some snowmen then you better hurry up!

Quiet and Cold Night...

There is just something palpable about the quiet after a heavy snow fall. We are looking at plummeting temperatures tonight as the arctic cold front pushes through. It will be interesting to see how fast this cold blast moderates. We may be looking at some more winter weather by Monday. My weather station currently reads 35.5 degrees at 10:00 PM.  Our one inch of snow has largely melted.  The roads are fine here in East Alabama.

Fluffy Flakes

It's Snowing!!!

Short Term Forecast

It is still just raining here at 34 degrees.  This is from the National Weather Service so hopefully it will start snowing soon.  

AUTAUGA-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-
RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA-
525 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2008

.NOW...

LIGHT RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL...MORE SLEET AND SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HIGHWAY 80. BY 7 AM...MOST LOCATIONS CAN AT LEAST EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL AFTER 7 AM.

Heavy Snow Warning Being Issued

Here is the new NWS snow accumulation potential graphic.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

…SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…

.THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR A SNOW STORM IN THE DEEP SOUTH. A
DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON
SATURDAY…SPREADING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. WITH COLD
ARCTIC AIR RACING SOUTHWARD TO MEET THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION…
SNOW WILL FALL ON SATURDAY.

ALZ012-013-015-190400-
/O.CAN.KBMX.WS.A.0001.080119T1000Z-080120T0200Z/
LAMAR-FAYETTE-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SULLIGENT…VERNON…FAYETTE…JASPER
851 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

…WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH.

LESS PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT…A DUSTING COVERING ANY EXPOSED GRASSY
SURFACES.

Snow is On!!!

I felt more comfortable with the above forecast when the usually very conservative Rich Thomas predicted up to 2 to 4 inches of snow for our area.  I think even bigger news is going to be the cold temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning.  With snow cover, the lows may need to be adjusted into the single digits! Brrrr!

I will be frequently updating the blog overnight and in the morning.  Pictures will be posted as they are merited.  Buckle up!  It is going to be an interesting ride!

Tentative Forecast for Snow...

This is the graphic for the snow potential in the south.  If this holds true, then I will be right on the line of 3 to 5 inches of snow.  They are now saying it will be daybreak Saturday when the snow starts to accumulate.  I am so excited!

Winter Storm Watch in Effect This Morning...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2008

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION…PREDOMINATELY SNOW…IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TUSCALOOSA AND MOUNT CHEAHA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS…ESPECIALLY BRIDGES OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS. VISIBILITY MAY BECOME LIMITED AS WELL. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT SOME SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. STAY ADVISED AS WE WILL LIKELY BE UPDATING AND OR REVISING THIS WATCH AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

From ABC 33/40 Weather Blog...

I thought this was interesting.  It shows you just how rare a measurable snow is in this state.  

IF it does snow … it will be the first snow of more than a half inch since January 28, 2000 when 3 inches of snow was recorded at the Birmingham International Airport. The previous five snow events of a half inch or more at Birmingham were:

Jan. 28, 2000 - 3.0″
Dec. 29, 1997 - 1.6″
Feb. 2, 1996 - 0.9″
Feb. 6, 1995 - 0.8″
Mar. 13, 1993 - 10.3″

The ABC 33/40 Weather Extreme Video for Tonight...

James Spann walks us through the next few day's weather.  I want to add the only he and crew are bullish about our snow.  WSFA 12, The Weather Channel, and The National Weather Service are all saying just rain for our area.  I have to fight the urge to grow overly excited as these other sources temper my exuberance.  James and crew have been known to hype a forecast for ratings, and are often wrong when it comes to winter storms. 

Snow in Maryland!

Cheryl graciously allowed me to share these photos of the snow in Maryland. They got quite a few inches if the snow on Cheryl's car is anything to go by. Thank you, Cheryl!

Significant Winter Weather Threat!

From the ABC 33/40 weather blog...

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain should move into the state between 6:00 p.m. and 12:00 midnight Friday night. The rain should change to snow in the 10:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. time frame as the Arctic air dives southward.

SATURDAY: Snow should be widespread across the central part of Alabama from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Most likely, there will be about a 50 mile wide band of heavy snow, with potential for 3 to 6 inches. First guess is that the center of the axis of heavier snow will be from roughly Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke. There will be potential of 1 to 3 inches of snow on either side of that heavier snow band. By the time you get to the Tennessee Valley, snow should be light and spotty.

I live about 30 minutes from Roanoke.  I hope this forecast pans out.  It will be so exciting and I will have plenty of Diet Cokes and smokes to be snowed in a few days.  Someone throw a log on the fire!

A Look Ahead...

Most weather websites and blogs in the south are talking about our next system -- a low forming in the Gulf and moving across south Georgia.  From a look at the models, we will be right on the rain/snow line.  Here is the forecast for Friday and Saturday from the National Weather Service.  Following that are the NAM and GFS models for Saturday.  This is so exciting!

Some Snowfall Amounts in Georgia

Here are some maximum snowfall amounts for northern Georgia released by the National Weather Service.  I thought these were interesting and showed that some locations did get a good snow in this past storm.  

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1101 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008

...MAXIMUM SNOW AMOUNTS ENDING AT 7AM THIS MORNING...

LOCATION              COUNTY    SNOW AMOUNT   COMMENTS

5 SE YOUNG HARRIS     TOWNS     4.0           ELEVATION 2500 FT
7 W BLAIRSVILLE       UNION     4.0           HIGHER ELEVATIONS
5 W WALESKA           CHEROKEE  3.5           ELEVATION 1680 FT
4 SE ROCKMART         POLK      3.0
DAHLONEGA             LUMPKIN   3.0
CLEVELAND             WHITE     3.0
MURRAYVILLE           HALL      3.0
2 W LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN  DADE      3.0
HIAWASSEE             TOWNS     2.0
BLUE RIDGE            FANNIN    2.0
DAWSONVILLE           DAWSON    2.0
BALL GROUND           CHEROKEE  1.5
GAINESVILLE           HALL      1.5
HOMER                 BANKS     1.5
ELLIJAY               GILMER    1.5
MATT                  FORSYTH   1.5
DACULA                GWINETT   1.0
COVINGTON             NEWTON    1.0
WATKINSVILLE          OCONEE    1.0
BUCHANAN              HARALSON  1.0
CUMMING               FORSYTH   1.0
ALPHARETTA            FULTON    0.8
DALLAS                PAULDING  0.8
JONESBORO             CLAYTON   0.5
LAFAYETTE             WALKER    0.5
CARTERSVILLE          BARTOW    0.5

Model Madness...

It was 12 degrees in Amarillo this morning. They are getting a taste of the arctic air that will soon invade the South. Annabel talked of driving through blowing snow coming home from work yesterday.

The models are now hinting at another Gulf low forming Friday and Saturday. The 06 UTC NAM shows a vigorous surface low developing along the stalled front in the Gulf by Friday night, which moves toward south Georgia by Saturday morning. This time is also showing more precipitation and cooler air. The 850 mb 0 degree line should be somewhere near Birmingham Friday night.

The track of the low will depend a lot on where the front stalls in the Gulf. Lows generally move along fronts. If warmer, Gulf air can stay closer to the coast, then our chances for snow Friday night and Saturday are higher. If not, maybe a dusting, or nothing at all.

Below is a look at the current weather surface map. Lots of fog in the Mississippi valleys.

Bama Snow...

Thanks goes to Mike Wilhelm for this video of snow coming down hard in Bama.

Evening Update for 1-16-08

Well, I think it is pretty safe to say no chance for white stuff here near Auburn. My outside weather station reads 35.1 degrees at 8:30 PM. I don't think it is going to drop anymore having already reached the dew point. It sure feels cold though and that is one of the coldest rains in recent memory.

Our eyes now turn to the next system: a vigorous arctic cold front pushing through the Midwest at this hour. That system and it's low will arrive on Friday with temperatures that could be close to freezing Friday night. I have even heard rumors of another Gulf low forming at the end of the week. The weather will continue to be active for us weather fans!

Below is the current surface map at this hour...

Snow South of Atlanta

Tee just sent me this photo of the snow falling south of Atlanta. That is about an hour from my home. So far, still just rain here with a temperature of 34. It is snowing in Randolph county, the county to my north, with some reports of freezing rain at the airport in Anniston, Alabama.

Snow in Atlanta

Tee just commented that it is snowing in South Metro Atlanta.  I live an hour away from Atlanta's Hartsfield International.   It is currently 34 degrees and raining heavily here.  I just took a thermometer outside on my porch and will be giving readings from that once it cools down.  The weather is proving more exciting than they initially though.  It is going to be a long night of weather watching here at Andrew's Weather Blog.  I will just have to wait and see if the temperature drops any farther after sunset. 

Southeast Radar Loop

Our NWS local Forecast saying all rain...

It's Sleeting!!!

Evaporative Cooling...

From the National Weather Service forecast discussion...

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S.

The temperature is just now 37 degrees before lunch with a large swath of rain moving in.  It will be interesting to see if evaporative cooling comes into play.  Evaporative cooling is where rain falls and evaporates in the relatively dry air.  The temperature will fall trying to match the dew point.  Reports of sleet across west Alabama are being widely reported at this hour.  The weather guessers are saying the temps should rise into the forties after the rain starts with a breeze out of the South.   

Click on the image below for the latest radar animation...

A Winter's Sun...

The skies just looked snowy this evening when I took this shot in my front yard. I hope it foretells snow tomorrow. This weather is so exciting!

Partly Cloudy Skies...

The initial effects of the upcoming Gulf low can already be felt over the South. A plume of high level moisture is moving up from the Southwest causing partly cloudy skies. The current temperature is 48 degrees with a weak cold front pushing through the South. Keep tuned to the blog for more weather information as it arises.

Images courtesy of The Weather Channel.

Nashville's WKRN Predictor on the Snow/Rain...

Meteorologist Davis Nolan of WKRN News 2 of Nashville writes...

Last Sunday night on the 10pm news I said that people always ask me, “Is this the hardest place to forecast the weather?” I tell them that it’s not any harder than anywhere else except for one thing: forecasting snow in the wintertime. Why? Because we are usually right on or near the rain/snow line. Well, this situation isn’t any different.

Here is a look News 2's predictor for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. They are definitely on the rain/snow line. Initial predictions are calling for a wet snow around Nashville and changing over to rain as warm air is pulled up from the Gulf by the low.

The Calm Before the Storm...

The first signs of our much vaunted Gulf low storm is making its appearance over southern Texas.  It is raining just north of Brownsville.  This low will gather strength and move through the southeast on Wednesday.  Not much change to the forecast and thinking.  The rain/snow line is still predicted to be around the Alabama/Tennessee border.

 

It is cold this morning.  Clear skies and calm winds allowed the temperatures to drop precipitously after sunset.  My weather station read 27 degrees at 5:00 AM.  Now, if only the moisture would arrive now instead of tomorrow.  We would have our snow.  But, that is terribly wishful thinking.  I will have to be content in watching and reading the weather blogs to my north for my wintry weather fix.  Check out The Weather Guy for up-to-date weather coverage of this evolving storm in Tennessee. 

Latest NAM and GFS runs...

Here are the latest NAM and GFS runs.  The closer we get to Wednesday, the less promising a snow event this far south looks.  Needless to say, I am sorely disappointed, but there is a long winter ahead.  The will be other chances at the white stuff and we will be here at Andrew's Weather Blog covering it in its fullest. 

NAM:

GFS:

Today's Sunset

GFS Woes!

The latest noon time run of the GFS is predicting a rain event for most of Alabama.  Only the farthest north counties are getting in on a rain/snow/freezing rain solution. I know my Tennessee friends are excited.  They will possibly get an inch or two.  Ice is predicted for farthest east Tennessee and northern Georgia.  Not a pretty scenario.  Ice is the most damaging winter weather scenario often resulting in loss of power to homes.  The National Weather Service still has snow in our forecast though and that thrills me to death.  They are always so conservative and it gives me hope for us this far south.  Keep tuned to the blog for all the latest developments.  This is certainly proving exciting and I couldn't have picked a better time to start a weather blog.  

Afternoon Monday ABC 33/40 Weather Extreme Video

 

Model Runs Coming in Colder...

It is an exciting time here in the weather offices of Andrew's Weather Blog. As the latest model runs came in, it was apparent that they are trending colder. Even the normally conservative NWS has gotten on board. The next two model runs will be pivotal in solidifying the forecast. I think it is a pretty safe bet that someone in Alabama is going to get snow. Bring it on, baby!

Here is a quick look at the new 12Z run of the NAM valid at midnight Wednesday night…

This would suggest a greater risk of ice or snow for the northern half of Alabama. Stay tuned as this interesting little weather scenario occurs. You will be the first to hear about it on the blog.

Images courtesy of The National Weather Service and The Weather Channel...