A strong tropical wave in the southeast Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia by the weekend as it moves to the west/northwest. There is a chance this one could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it also could move into either the Yucatan Peninsula, or even Central America. Too early to make the call, but certainly this will be one to watch.
Will fall ever arrive? It seems business as usual as far as summer goes. We have a slight, and a mean very slight, chance of rain today with a high around the middle nineties. Rain chances increase on Saturday and Saturday night with a cold front stalled across the middle of the state. Temperatures cool off only a few degrees after the front passes.
I’ve been looking at some of the temperatures across the country this morning. It is close to freezing in Yellowstone at this hour. Minnesota and the lows are in the forties. They are getting their taste of Fall that we are missing out on. Temperatures right now here are hovering in the upper sixties.
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Tropical Storm Igor in the far eastern Atlantic has the potential to become a powerful hurricane in coming days, but the GFS and the ECMWF models re-curve the system into the westerlies before reaching the U.S. East Coast next week. It doesn’t seem like a threat to even get close to the Gulf of Mexico. There is a tropical wave near the Windward islands and this will need to be watched closely.
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It looks like Igor is set to become a hurricane sometime during the day on Saturday. The course is still uncertain this far out. Some models keep it south heading into the Caribbean. Other models send it on a northwesterly course to curve into the open Atlantic basin much like that past few storms we have had.
Another strong wave is set to come off the African coast to skirt the Cape Verde islands. This is looking much more impressive than the wave that formed Igor. There is also a tropical wave just north of South America that looks unorganized as of yet. We will have to watch and see if it forms into anything in the next few days. It’s that time of the year folks – the most active time in the tropics.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
A much more summer-like pattern returns to the South with an engulf of Gulf of Mexico moisture and highs in the lower nineties. I look forward to the rain chances every afternoon and will keep an eye on the radar. This will probably be our last chance at this pattern before another more vigorous cold front is due for the fall changing things permanently. Hermine heads into the Midwest giving them a taste of weather we often get during tropical weather season.
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The NWS has revised their forecast once again bringing in the possibility of afternoon showers towards the end of the week. Warm temperatures will also arrive as each night and day grows warmer. Are we having our Indian summer? I was trying to think this morning when the leaves begin to turn and it is usually around Halloween this far south. I am hoping this will put my new leaf blower to work for my lawn care business.
Hermine is headed into south Texas this morning. The radar echoes last night looked very much like a Hurricane or very strong tropical storm. The Weather Channel made a big deal out of Earl, but I fear Hermine will have a much greater affect on the lower 48 states. Especially Texas. Flooding rains will most likely be the most dangerous threat than high winds. Flash flooding is one of the more dangerous weather phenomena's killing more people per year than almost any other. If there is death and destruction, then The Weather Channel will be there to report it.
Pleasant weather is in store for the South. Maggie and Caramel stayed out all day yesterday enjoying the wonderful weather and I missed having them inside. They soon can toodling in around about the time I was leaving for work. Caramel is Maggie’s constant companion.
No rain in the forecast much to my chagrin, though. The nights will continue to be cool and the days warm. Perfect Fall weather for the South. September usually just means another summer month this far below the Mason Dixon line so this touch of Fall has been very exciting!
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Tropical Storm Hermine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico mainland. This will mean up to a foot of rain for some areas in South Texas. I hope it meanders toward the Southeast to bring us much needed rain. Tropical storm and hurricane season tends to last until early November, so I am hoping we will have many more chances such as Hermine for rain. It bodes well for my yard care business with my season of mowing soon to end in a few months.
Well, it is safe to safe that we are having our first taste of fall. I fell asleep yesterday evening with my windows open and it was very chilly when I awoke in the middle of the night. I had to turn on the heat with me being so cold natured.
Look at our temperatures for tonight and Sunday night! I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS pushes these temperatures down even farther. We have a cold front blowing through today, but shouldn’t see any rain or storms with it – the atmosphere just being entirely too dry for such things. It won’t stop me from watching the radar obsessively, though, with my hopes up. I wouldn’t mind to see a little weather action in the South today.
The long term forecast looks dry for almost 14 days out. I doesn’t look like we will get any rain anytime soon and my yard will go back from being green to brown again shortly. I refuse to water it and it is centipede – being a very hardy form of grass that weathers such dry spells well.
Well, Earl was as much as I had expected. Much ado over nothing. This didn’t stop The Weather Channel from making a big deal out of it, though. I vowed today not to watch that channel anymore and will rely on the internet for my weather needs. I can get exactly the weather information I need at the touch of a button without it being sensationalized for ratings. The last I looked, Earl is a tropical storms and will give some much needed rain to Nova Scotia.
As I predicted, Earl is taking a more northeasterly course. Hurricanes just tend to turn to the Northeast climatologically. This will send The Weather Channel correspondents on a mad scurry up the coast to catch the action they hope will now occur in Massachusetts and Maine. Can you tell I am so cynical about The Weather Channel these days? If I wanted sensationalized weather news, then I could watch Fox News.
The NWS has tweaked our forecast once again pushing the temperatures lower for Saturday and Saturday night. I am hoping this will bode for an early Fall in the South. I have grown tired of Summer and all the bland green choosing to prefer the bland brown of Winter for a change. I get so excited at the change of seasons. It makes for interesting weather in the South as cold fronts blow through. 53 degrees is going to feel almost winter-like for this cold natured soul. I’ve already got an extra quilt thrown on the bed for the ready.
There is a touch of fall in store for the South this weekend with lows getting down to 56 degrees Saturday night. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS tweaks this further and pushes the temps even lower. Perfect football weather with college football’s first games of the season coming on Saturday. My father will be at the game like he always is with his season tickets every year. The daytime highs will also be more comfortable with low humidity and the mid eighties.
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I think it is safe to say that Earl will only be a threat for maritime regions and not the South. I may be going out on a limb, but only Nova Scotia and Canada will feel the true effects of this storm. This will not stop The Weather Channel from having wall-to-wall coverage, though, and trying to stir residents of North Carolina into a frenzy. Much ado about nothing is what I will say.
They are saying partly cloudy today, but I have a feeling it is going to be cool and overcast all day. We are showing echoes of rainfall on the radar nearby, but it must be virgo and not falling to the ground.
It was very cool when I arrived at work. I planned ahead and wore one of my fleece pullovers with me being so cold natured. When the temperatures drop below 80 degrees then I am uncomfortable.
Look at our lows for the next two night. 63 degrees respectively. Downright chilly and some would say this is good football weather. The local high school is not far from my house and I could hear the band practicing last night and it brought back many fond memories.
Well, it seems like Earl is wanting to impress us. I laughed last night watching the weather channel as they foamed at the mouth over a storm that really isn’t threatening anyone just yet. They showed of video of one of the Carribbean islands and it was just raining some with some gusty winds. It didn’t look like people were dying or houses were getting blow away much to their chagrin. I am so cynical about the weather channel these days.
Fiona is not far behind, but doesn’t look very impressive or organized. I doubt she will be a major player in the grand scheme of things. Earl sapping all her energy and the upwelling of cooler ocean water causing her to flounder.
Look at our forecast lows! You can really tell fall is around the corner. 62 degrees on Wednesday night will feel downright chilly. I will have to wear warm clothes at work as the coolest temps often come just before dawn when I am at my busiest. Highs will still get in the nineties most days, but nothing like that obscene heat we had just a few short weeks ago. The change of seasons are always my favorite times of the year and often bring the most interesting weather. Ah, spring and fall, how I love ye!
Well, it doesn’t look like Earl is going to be a threat to anyone. We have two opposing high pressure systems steering these storms. I personally would not like any to hit land just to spite The Weather Channel which I affectionately call the death and destruction channel. They love for people to die and for shit to get blown apart. It means more money for them and better ratings. Lets look at the forecast models which all seem to be pretty consistent in their predictions…
My name is Jonathon Minter. I am 38. I have always been weather obsessed. Many childhood nights would be spent watching the then fledgling Weather Channel and wishing for snow. I grew up and then along came the internet and the wonderful world of weather related sites. I was in hog heaven.
This blog is an effort to share my love of the weather with others. I hope you find it informative and useful.
